“From time to time, each of us has the tendency to overestimate our competence, to think we’re better at something than we actually are.” You prove this point by thinking you are good at political commentary and attempting to Psychoanalyse Donald Trump. The rest of your article shows that you suck at both.
You fail to distinguish between his sometimes silly words, and the actual results he is getting. He has already delivered on most of his election promises: check out the Stock Market, unemployment, and the GDP now compared to the Obama era. Manufacturing is returning to America, bringing jobs and prosperity. That is far more important than the fact that the President shoots his mouth off.
The average Trump voter finds it refreshing that we always know what Trump is thinking, whether we agree with it or not. He has no tact or ettiquette but he also has no politically correct, professionally written managed utterances that sound appropriate but say little and mean even less. He thinks, then speaks with no filter between brain and mouth: Republican political minders hate that just as much as you do: the rest of us enjoy the novelty of knowing exactly what he is thinking all the time. We never got that from Obama or either of the Clintons.
Fake news, scripted sound-bites, endlessly phrased so as to avoid offending any demographic, and relentlessly politically correct socialist propaganda: that is what the American people revolted against when they rejected the Progressive blandness of Hillary Clinton’s public utterances. When she spoke, you never heard what she was thinking, only what she wanted you to hear: all you knew for sure is that it was self-serving lies.
If anyone showed the Dunning-Kruger effect in the last Election it was Hillary Clinton. She clearly thought she was guaranteed to win, and was the “Born to Rule” candidate. That clearly was “a cognitive bias where people with little expertise or ability assume they have superior expertise or ability.” She could not believe Trump had beaten her so resoundingly. Most of the Democrat party has the same problem to a greater or lesser degree: “How could they vote for teh other guy? They must be racist, homophobic, mysogenist white supremists, or at the very least ‘a basket of deplorables!’”
Can you see how your Dunning-Kruger effect is making you imagine one in Donald Trump?