Flawed Logic

Remember:

  • Intelligence is situational — there is no such thing as general intelligence. AI will prove this assumption wrong.
  • No system exists in a vacuum; any individual intelligence will always be both defined and limited by the context of its existence, by its environment. Currently, our environment, not our brain, is acting as the bottleneck to our intelligence. An AI’s environment will be all of the internet: arguably not much of a limit.
  • Human intelligence is largely externalized, contained not in our brain but in our civilization. This doesn’t apply to AI: why would it?
  • Recursively self-improving systems, because of contingent bottlenecks, diminishing returns, and counter-reactions arising from the broader context in which they exist, cannot achieve exponential progress in practice. Empirically, they tend to display linear or sigmoidal improvement. In particular, this is the case for scientific progress — science being possibly the closest system to a recursively self-improving AI that we can observe. Sigmoidal growth is correct: Exponential at first, leaping through “Low hanging fruit” development much as Moore’s law predicted for exponentially faster computers, then linear progress, then incrementally smaller increases as dictated by diminishing returns and theoretical boundaries to growth. This still has the potential for massive growth. The Earth’s human population growth is a Sigmoidal curve, and look at that growth over the last 500 years.
  • Recursive intelligence expansion is already happening — at the level of our civilization. It will keep happening in the age of AI, and it progresses at a roughly linear pace. Again you assume human rates of intelligence expansion must apply to AI as well, and there is no reason why that has to be the case.

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I work in IT, Community volunteer interested in Politics, support Capitalism as the best economic system for lifting people out of poverty, Skeptical scientist.

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Al Black

Al Black

I work in IT, Community volunteer interested in Politics, support Capitalism as the best economic system for lifting people out of poverty, Skeptical scientist.

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