“AGW is a proven fact in my assessment, we’re just waiting for somebody with some common sense to figure out something that will pass political muster.”
Global Warming is a proven fact: the “Anthropogenic” part is only a persuasive theory. It is persuasive because humans like to think they are the masters of their own fate and can “do something” to make a difference. If Climate Change is caused by burning fossil fuels, then we can reverse climate change by stopping burning fossil fuels, right? But our industrialised civilisation that keeps 7 billion people alive on this planet has been based on Fossil Fuels since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
We had better be damned sure CO2 is the culprit, because the abandonment of fossil fuels means abandoning the reliable, cheap base load power that sustains the electrical grid in all developed countries, unless we replace Fossil fuel power stations with Nuclear first.
When you are asking us to risk the very existence of the global supply chains that keep us all alive, the standard of proof must needs be very high, and it is not.
The world has been slowly warming for the last 20,000 years since the last ice age: We don’t know why it cooled 50,000 years ago, or why it warmed 20,000years ago, but we do know that burning fossil fuels had nothing to do with it.
Past eras were much warmer than now and had far higher CO2 levels too, but the geological record shows that the CO2 rises came after the warming, not before. If we don’t know the cause of the last 20,000 years of warming, but can infer that such a cause does exist, why is it (rather than CO2) not the cause of the relatively minor warming noted between 1975 and 1998?
The world’s emissions of CO2 have grown faster since 1998 than in any other period in history due to the building of hundreds of Coal-burning power stations and Blast furnaces in China and India, but over the last 19 years there has been no statistically significant change in the average temperature of the Earth: so we know now that Global temperature is not proportional to the atmospheric concentration of CO2. There cannot be causality without correlation, so this sort of torpedoes the AGW theory below the waterline.
Regardless of any action humans take to reduce CO2 emissions, the sea level will continue to rise by nearly 1.9 mm per year, so we are going to have to sea-wall or abandon several coastal cities by 2100 — that’s a given. Long term the sea will rise by nearly 200cm per Century: that has always been the case, and we’ll deal with it.
Models used to influence policy on climate change have overestimated the rate of warming, underestimated direct benefits of carbon dioxide, overestimated the harms from climate change and underestimated human capacity to adapt so as to capture the benefits while reducing the harms.
These are serious flaws in the Climate Science, are obvious to anyone familiar with the Scientific Method, and I can only assume that the false estimates were politically motivated. Read what the greatest living physicist has to say on the matter:
The CSIRO is Australia’s Scientific research organisation, and they have published studies showing that the release of fossil carbon has been beneficial to nature.